r/worldnews Oct 01 '24

Israel/Palestine Biden directs US military to help Israel shoot down Iranian missiles, officials say

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-us-prepared-israel-defend-iranian-attack/story?id=114393069
23.7k Upvotes

2.3k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

293

u/MuteNute Oct 01 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

Iran isn't going to start WWIII, no one is coming to bat for them. Everyone is going to stand back and just wait for Israel to kick the dogshit out of them. 

Israel has just been waiting for the US to let go of their leash, and we've already been limp wristing it. 

This probably just earned them the green light they've been waiting for.  

No idea what Iran was thinking, they're beyond fucked. 

100

u/dangerousbob Oct 01 '24

The only one who could get involved would be Russia but they have their hands full.

100

u/tmntmmnt Oct 01 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

Russia doesn’t want that smoke.

Iran is basically a weapons supplier to Russia at this point. A huge paradigm shifts from the old days….

From a non-nuclear point of view it’s more likely that Israel would cripple Russia rather than vice versa.

8

u/SeanSeanySean Oct 02 '24

Israel would avoid direct conflict with Russia for this very reason, and Russia wouldn't go much past a proxy war arming and supporting Israel's enemies in the middle east, basically exactly what they've been doing since 1977, just more publicly. 

While Israel has a moderate nuclear arsenal, and I'm confident that it's plenty accurate, it's estimated to be no more then a 200 mostly tactical warheads, also likely 90% deployed with regional capabilities given who their clear enemies have been over the last 60+ years, with maybe a few enabled for longer range deployment. Israel doesn't need to have long range nuclear capabilities as it has the United States as its closest ally and is longstanding NATO partner. 

Israel would never give Russia reason for a nuclear strike, because while Israel could lay an embarrassing shellacing on Russian  forces with conventional weapons, unfortunately even with Iron Dome, David's Sling and Arrow systems, Israel doesn't have even remotely close to the defensive capacity to thwart, nor the real estate to survive even a half-hearted Russian nuclear strike. 

Lastly, Russia is weary of fucking with Israel, even the FSB is terrified of Mossad's capabilities combined with their sheer ruthlessness and effectiveness. 

24

u/[deleted] Oct 01 '24

And from a nuclear pov too. If any of the enemies get nukey, Israel has plenty to throw back at them. 

6

u/GrimGambits Oct 01 '24

Israel is a very small country. If any of their enemies "get nukey" they will cease to exist. If Tel Aviv and Haifa were hit there would basically be nothing left, most of their population would be within the blast radius of those two areas.

30

u/MuteNute Oct 01 '24

Yeah and as long as the US stays out of the conflict (which we will exactly for this reason) they know they can't get involved themselves without us entering the conflict, which absolutely cannot happen from their perspective.

Not to mention they still have the conflict with Ukraine. Help isn't on the way for Iran. 

Within the next 48 hours, hell is going to rain on Iranian military targets. 

-7

u/Traditional_Golf_221 Oct 01 '24

In Iran proper? Doubt it.

13

u/Harvey-Specter Oct 01 '24

Why? Israel hit military targets in Iran back in April after a similar missile attack. They'll do it again.

7

u/CPlusPlusDeveloper Oct 01 '24

Yeah, just like how last year Kadyrov kept talking about how his based Chechnyan super soldiers were going to travel to Gaza to defeat the IDF. Sure they’ll be arriving any day now 

4

u/Advanced-Shame- Oct 01 '24

No way Russia gets involved. Unless Iran knows something we dont then they are in for it. Bibi would love nothing more than to fight Iran with US support.

Who really knows if Isreal will just retaliate and not escalate but Gaza is rubble and Hezbollah's command structure is in disarray. Lebanons military is retreating from their own border.

2

u/StevoJ89 Oct 01 '24

Lol for real Russia can barely handle what's on its plate no way they're gonna have any active involvement here

44

u/awfulsome Oct 01 '24

china prolly eyeing Taiwan right now wondering if this is their last shot.

57

u/MuteNute Oct 01 '24

If China makes a move on Taiwan all bets are off, its probably WWIII.

But I don't think that's likely, China trying to get boots on the ground of Taiwan would be insane. The amount of losses they'd sustain in the effort would be beyond the pale. Assuming they'd succeed at all. 

6

u/No_Share6895 Oct 01 '24

If China makes a move on Taiwan all bets are off, its probably WWIII.

yeah i can see china going ether way at this point. yeah going while taiwan's allies are focused elsewhere but i can also see them not wanting full blown ww3 knowing russian will be their ally and how russia is doing right now and thinking it'll be smarter to bide their time until the rest is done then strike when everyone is worn out

26

u/Delann Oct 01 '24

Except Taiwan's allies aren't focused elsewhere. Israel can deal with Iran mostly on their own and the US is only supplying Ukraine, not actively fighting in it. Combine that with the fact that US doctrine is something ridiculous like being able to fight on two and a half major fronts at all times and there's not a chance in hell China could pull anything.

15

u/MuteNute Oct 01 '24

Taiwan knows that if Chinese boots find purchase on Taiwanese soil, they're all dead.

Unsurprisingly, Taiwan has spent all their military might on making sure that doesn't happen. 

It would be nothing like the Ukraine invasion where the larger country gets to slow march its way across the landscape in a protracted war of attrition. 

You either take Taiwan, or you don't. That means the only way it's happening is a massive sea force invasion. 

Would it work if China went for it? Absolutely. Would the cost in human life and resources be worth it? I think that's China's rub. 

1

u/Emory_C Oct 02 '24

Trying to take Taiwan would need very visible preparations that would take months to organize. This isn't 1941, there's no such thing as a surprise invasion anymore.

1

u/WorkingOwl5883 Oct 02 '24

They just need to blockade it.........

2

u/BurialA12 Oct 02 '24

That's what they practiced when Pelosi visited, and that cause Taiwan to resume their national service. Many excited youth in their prime have lots to say about that

1

u/Emory_C Oct 02 '24

If China makes a move on Taiwan all bets are off, its probably WWIII.

But I don't think that's likely, China trying to get boots on the ground of Taiwan would be insane.

A mobilization like that would require months. We'd see it coming a mile away.

8

u/DieFichte Oct 01 '24

What shot? They don't have a shot, unless they want to completly destroy Taiwan. That's the only option they have and I don't think that aligns with their "one china" rhetoric to blow up the entire island.
Also I don't think they have enough power for the social unrest after they drop 30% of their economy.

5

u/omni42 Oct 01 '24

It would take weeks to assemble the forces for that suicide assault across the straight, and the US would have plenty of time to move assets nearby. Not to mention the estimated force attrition for china puts the mainland at heavy risk of civil unrest and violence.

China enjoys having the issue of Taiwan, its very unlikely they ever make a push.

2

u/Accomplished_Lack258 Oct 01 '24

Only when and if Xi gets really desperate to maintain his power. They know full well the West won’t treat an invasion of Taiwan as nicely as we did Ukraine, 1 is actually important to our strategic interest and close allies (at least for the U.S, not really sure how much the E.U cares beyond sticking with the U.S)

2

u/Not_an_alt_69_420 Oct 01 '24

China's leadership is a lot of things, but stupid isn't one of them.

NATO doesn't need to get involved in Israel any moreso than its members have been for decades for Israel to "win" whatever war is possibly about to start. The only thing NATO needs to do is turn a blind eye to whatever covert operations Israel executes, which will almost certainly cripple Iran's military/arms production and result in a lot of dead civilians, and possibly send over a carrier group to wipe out Iran's navy. If China decides now is the time to invade Taiwan, the United States'll military will still respond in the same way it would if the middle east didn't exist.

1

u/The_Phaedron Oct 01 '24

It's worth pointing out that Iran and Israel both have the ability to launch strikes, albeit with very asymmetric success, but neither Iran nor Israel have the military capacity to successfully invade the other.

Israel is a relatively small country. It has an incredibly competent military for Israel's tiny size, but its military can't project power in the way that'd be required to defeat Iran in a real war. Very few countries on the planet can project military power in that way.

The ebst that Israel can hope for is to set back Iran's offensive capabilities with targeted strikes, or, even more optimistically, weaken the regime enough to increase the chance of domestic revolt kicking off.

Realistically, I think we're going to see targeted strikes of IRI military assets, and possibly some weapons-shipping infrastructure points — and little more.

0

u/Dest123 Oct 01 '24

Reddit is vastly underestimating the military capabilities of Iran. They're aren't some random pushover. A lot of places rate them as slightly stronger than Israel. There weren't any deaths in this attack because Iran was basically just doing it to save face and not escalate things like they've done a bunch of times before. If Israel decides to escalate this into a full blown war, they're going to have a bad time. I mean, Iran is going to have a bad time too, but there's a VERY real possibility that Israel would lose the war.

6

u/AlphaGodEJ Oct 01 '24

the US would not allow Israel to lose the war

0

u/xerberos Oct 01 '24

Iran had to do something after the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah. I'm guessing Iran hit a few very limited targets so that they can beat their chest, and then Israel may or may not retaliate in a similarly limited way, and then it dies down. You may notice that there are almost no reports of casualties. If Iran wanted, they could have killed thousands with these missiles.

No one wants an all out Iran-Israel war.

0

u/Baderkadonk Oct 02 '24

Israel has just been waiting for the US to let go of their leash, and we've already been limp wristing it.

Nah, if we let go then they couldn't pull us along for the ride. Israel would probably act more cautiously if we set some ground rules for when we'll bail them out. Like maybe run it by us before bombing an embassy if they want our help shooting down the consequences.